Republicans are leading RealClearPolitics’ [RCP] general ballot for the first time since 2014, according to the analysis website, which averages notable political polls in an effort to forecast election outcomes.
RCP has Republicans up by half a percentage point on its generic congressional vote, showing 43.3 percent support for Republicans and 42.8 percent support for Democrats and potentially foreshadowing a red wave in 2022. Democrats notably maintained the lead in 2020, 2018, and 2016, though RCP showed Republicans ahead by 2.4 percentage points in 2014, halfway through former President Barack Obama’s second term.
Support for Democrats and President Joe Biden has been on the decline as the Biden administration grapples with the fallout from several failed policies at the same time.
Republican Virginia Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin’s win last week has largely been heralded as a sneak preview for the 2022 midterms. Youngkin notably scored well with some demographics, like independent voters, white suburban women, and Hispanics, all groups which were key in securing Biden’s win in 2020.