Goldman Sachs Suddenly Changes Tune On Recession Forecast After Trump’s Tariff Pause

Goldman Sachs reversed its recession forecast just moments after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

The investment giant had raised its recession outlook to a 65% probability earlier in the day following the rollout of country-specific tariffs, which briefly rattled markets. But after Trump’s surprise announcement to scale back the trade war, Goldman economists backtracked almost immediately, dialing the probability down to 45% and restoring their prior GDP growth forecast of 0.5%.

“Earlier today, before President Trump’s announcement, we had shifted to a recession baseline in response to the additional country-specific tariffs that went into effect this morning,” Goldman Sachs team of economists said, according to Bloomberg. The report is not yet publicly available. “We are now reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast.”

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