The Wait Continues

On the menu today: the state of play in the six states not yet called in the 2020 presidential election: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Alaska.

Wait, Alaska? What, are they delivering the absentee ballots by dog sled?

What We Know So Far

As of this hour, Joe Biden has won states that have given him 253 electoral votes. If you’re Fox News and you have projected Biden the winner in Arizona, he is at 264 electoral votes. President Trump has won states that have given him 214 electoral votes.

Six states remain uncalled. Alaska is one of them, and everyone expects Trump to win handily.

In North Carolina, Trump is ahead by about 1.5 percent, or 76,701 votes. In the Senate race, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis leads by about 1.8 percent, or 96,689 votes. (Remember all that talk about Tillis being a weak candidate? He won fewer votes than the president so far, but leads by a higher percentage!)

The N.C. State Board of Elections said that “as of Wednesday afternoon, the universe of absentee by-mail ballots that could still be counted is approximately 116,000. . . . The number of absentee ballots ultimately counted will be fewer than 117,000 because some voters will not return their ballots and others voted in person on Election Day.”

If every absentee by-mail ballot is returned, Biden would need to win those ballots by something along the lines of an 83 percent to 17 percent split to overcome Trump’s lead. In the Senate race, Cal Cunningham would need to win those ballots by about a 90 percent to 10 percent split to overcome Tillis’s lead. If fewer ballots are returned, those Democrats would need to win by an even wider margin. In other words, Trump and Tillis have won North Carolina, it’s just a matter of time before it becomes official.