Republican gains among Hispanic voters have generated a wave of concern among Democratic strategists. In 2020, Donald Trump received 38% of the Hispanic vote nationally, compared with 28% in 2016, according to a state-of-the-art Pew study that verified individual votes and is considered more reliable than exit polls. In Florida, Mr. Trump’s share rose to 46% from 35%, and in Texas to 41% from 31%. He made large gains in other states as well. If these gains are sustained in the midterm elections, Democrats will be forced to concede that a group they long regarded as a cornerstone of a new Democratic majority has instead become a swing group for whose allegiance they must fight.
If they’re serious about winning—and governing—Democrats must move Hispanics to the top tier of their electoral priorities. Here’s why.
A half-century ago, Hispanics in the U.S. numbered 9.6 million, less than 5% of the total population. Today, they number more than 62 million, about 19%. This rapid increase has had important consequences for the electorate. Although a higher-than-average share of Hispanics are too young to vote, their share of eligible adults has nearly doubled, to 14.3% from 7.4% since 2000. Since the 2018 midterms, that number has climbed to 34.6 million from 29.9 million, or 16%. Hispanic eligible voters outnumber African-American ones.
