Comparing the Trump-Pence and Obama-Biden Recoveries

The U.S. has undergone two of its most wrenching economic downturns within just a dozen years: the 2008 financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. How do the two recoveries compare?

Both recessions imposed sickening costs. The 2008 crisis precipitated a drop in gross domestic product of 4.0 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the bottom in the second quarter of 2009. The coronavirus pandemic triggered a shorter, sharper drop of 10.1 percent from the last quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020. Since GDP data only come out quarterly, monthly economic statistics provide a basis for comparing the Trump-Pence and Obama-Biden recoveries.

Significant recognized indicators in addition to GDP include nonfarm payroll employment, retail sales, industrial production, durable-goods orders, and housing starts, all of which are measured monthly.

In the table below the percentage change in these indicators is measured from the month before a recession to the bottom or trough of the recession and then five months from the trough, using dates provided by the recognized arbiter of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER hasn’t yet dated the end of the pandemic recession, but April 2020 is likely to be selected.